2026 Freight Market & Trucking Industry Trends

Key Takeaways:

• Freight volumes remain soft while regional capacity pockets are tightening.
• Contract rates are flat, but spot market volatility is increasing.
• Carrier exits and consolidation are reshaping routing guides and service reliability.
• Quarterly routing guide updates and engineering-driven network design are essential.
• Real-time visibility and data-driven insights improve planning and reduce disruptions.

With 2025 coming to an end, all eyes are now on the transportation market to figure out what worked and what didn’t. Trucking industry trends have made one thing certain through it all: the market has been unusually uneven.

Freight volumes were low, contract rates barely moved, and spot activity ticked up.

According to the American Trucking Associations, total truck tonnage kept dropping through 2025, showing how soft the freight market really was. But State of Transportation reports published by Ryder showed the opposite issue in some regions, where multiple carrier exits tightened capacity and caused sudden congestion in places like the Southeast, Texas, the Mountain West, and parts of the Midwest.

This disconnect leaves shippers with a real challenge heading into 2026: How do you plan a transportation strategy when demand feels soft in some areas, capacity is tightening in others, and modal decisions keep shifting?

This article breaks down what happened in 2025 and what you should expect in truckload, LTL, and intermodal in 2026.

The State of Transportation in 2025

As the freight market moved into 2025, shippers had to adjust to a market that never quite settled. Freight demand was steady but slow, while certain regions faced tighter capacity.

This mix forced many supply chain teams to rethink familiar strategies and remain more flexible than they might have liked to.

#1: Freight Demand: Stable, but Not Surging

Data from the U.S. Bureau of Transportation Statistics showed that freight activity through late 2024 stayed mostly flat.

As a result, sectors such as manufacturing, retail, food and beverage, and consumer goods entered 2025 expecting modest activity rather than large volume spikes. Most supply chains deployed a careful approach, focusing on cost control and steady performance.

#2: Rates: Contract Flat, Spot Volatile

DAT’s Truckload Volume Index pointed to a clear pattern: Contract rates were mostly unchanged, while spot prices shifted in regions like the Southeast, Midwest, and Texas.

Low freight volumes kept contract pricing stable, but spot markets reacted quickly whenever capacity tightened. With each new carrier exit, spot capacity thinned, increasing the risk of routing guide failures.

Shippers relying on a once-a-year bid cycle may feel more pressure going into 2026.

#3: Carrier Exits and Consolidation

Carrier exits continued throughout 2025, and many trucking companies reduced long-haul exposure or shifted toward more regional operations. These changes caused several noticeable effects:

• Longer lead times for long-haul shipments.
• More dependence on brokerage when primary carriers fall through.
• More pressure on service consistency.
• Bigger price gaps between short-haul and long-haul lanes.

Capacity is not disappearing everywhere, but it is becoming more regional and harder to predict. This shift will continue to influence shipper planning as they prepare for 2026.

Truckload (TL) Outlook for 2026

The truckload market is heading into 2026 with a very different setup than the year before. Capacity has shifted, carrier exits have reshaped certain regions, and demand patterns look more uneven than expected.

These changes are pushing shippers to rethink how they plan, secure capacity, and balance contract and spot strategies.

TL Recalibration Is Coming

The truckload market began tightening in the middle of 2025 as capacity exits finally caught up with demand.

This shift is setting the stage for a different kind of market in 2026. You can expect:

• Contract rates to rise slightly.
• Spot rates to remain unpredictable.
• Surge freight, especially in Q4, to be harder to secure.
• Regional markets are expected to behave very differently from one another.

Even though national TL capacity may look stable on paper, the real question is where trucks are actually positioned.

Operational capacity, meaning the equipment available in the right place at the right time, will continue to be uneven across the country.

Strategic Implications for Shippers

Shippers planning for 2026 need to adjust their approach to match the uneven capacity and shifting market signals.

The traditional idea of using a single routing guide or a single nationwide strategy no longer works today. Smarter network design and more flexible decision-making are now required.

Regionalization of Networks

Regional sourcing, nearshoring, and the rise of shorter-haul freight are changing how supply chains operate. If your freight footprint still looks the same as it did in 2018, you are likely dealing with higher costs and inconsistent service.

Modern networks need to sit closer to demand and be designed around how each region behaves, not national averages.

Hybrid Routing Guides

Many shippers are now combining contract, controlled spot, and dynamic routing. This mixed approach keeps pricing steady while allowing teams to adjust quickly when capacity tightens or rates shift.

A rigid routing guide simply cannot keep up with how fast conditions change in different regions.

Dedicated Fleet Evaluations

With long-haul capacity tightening, more shippers are reviewing dedicated options for routes that need higher service and stability.

Dedicated fleets make the most sense for:

• High-service lanes that cannot risk disruption.
• Multi-stop route structures.
• Closed-loop networks that operate on predictable schedules.

Ryder’s engineering team supports these reviews by building lane-by-lane models that show where dedicated capacity delivers value, where brokerage is a better fit, and where asset-light options are the smarter choice.

LTL Outlook for 2026

The LTL market is heading into 2026 with steady pressure despite softer freight demand.

Carriers are dealing with higher costs, more complex freight profiles, and uneven regional volumes, which means shippers should expect pricing to stay firm.

LTL is not behaving like truckload, and understanding that difference is key to planning the months ahead.

LTL Pricing Pressures Will Persist

Even though overall freight demand is soft, LTL carriers continue to feel the impact of rising costs.

Many are dealing with higher operating expenses, ongoing real-estate and terminal investments, more complex shipments, and uneven volume across regions.

Unlike truckload, where excess capacity suppresses rates, LTL carriers operate on fixed networks with high terminal costs. This is why LTL base rates and accessorial charges continue climbing even during soft markets.

Strategic Implications for Shippers

Shippers planning for 2026 should consider several adjustments:

• Focus on freight profile optimization.
• Consolidate where possible.
• Use mode-shift analysis to determine whether borderline LTL shipments should shift to partial TL or intermodal.
• Increase shipment predictability to maintain favorable pricing.

Ryder’s routing and rate intelligence capabilities help shippers find cost advantages across modes while maintaining service reliability.

Market Dynamics Shaping 2026 Strategy

Even as headline rates appear stable, underlying capacity pressures and regional bottlenecks are key freight industry trends reshaping how shippers plan for 2026.

Flat Rates Mask Tightening Capacity

Contract TL rates may look steady, but 2025 was likely the quiet before the shift. Routing guides already show: more price breaks, higher tender rejects in tight regions, and increased brokerage utilization.

If you're not refreshing your routing guide quarterly, you're reacting rather than planning.

Picking the Right Mode

Shippers frequently ask:

• When should we go TL vs. intermodal?
• When does LTL become partial TL?
• How much spot exposure is too much?
• Which lanes should shift to dedicated?

These decisions require lane-by-lane engineering analysis, something many internal teams simply don't have the bandwidth to perform. (H3) Service Reliability Is the New Competitive Advantage With tighter long-haul capacity and strained networks, consistent access to truck drivers on key lanes is becoming just as important as rate stability. Shippers are prioritizing on-time percentage, predictability, fewer dwell delays, and better visibility.

Integrated technology from Ryder and real-time tracking provide shippers with the visibility needed to reduce disruptions across modes.

What Shippers Must Prioritize Going Into 2026

Below are the strategic focal points shippers need to adopt as the transportation landscape continues shifting.

Multi-Modal Optimization

Avoid treating truckload, LTL, and intermodal as separate decisions. Each lane needs to be reviewed across all viable modes, using total landed cost, service requirements, and reliability as the deciding factors.

This helps uncover savings that a single-mode view would miss.

Regionalization of Networks

Network efficiency is now closely tied to shorter hauls, regional carriers, micro-fulfillment points, and smart consolidation strategies.

If your freight still moves through long, outdated patterns, you are likely overspending and exposing yourself to inconsistent service.

Quarterly Transportation Refreshes

Annual bids cannot keep up with today’s rate and capacity shifts. Quarterly updates help you stay aligned with the market and prevent problems like:

• Higher tender rejections.
• Rising spot exposure.
• Outdated pricing.
• Carrier awards that no longer match actual service.

Engineering-Driven Network Design

Most internal teams lack the time or tools to build the models needed for today’s transportation planning.

This includes:

• Mode-shift evaluations.
• Dedicated versus truckload comparisons.
• Intermodal substitution analysis.
• Regional network mapping.
• Risk and resilience assessments.

Ryder’s transportation logistics fills this gap by providing lane-by-lane modeling and scenario planning. This gives shippers clear, data-backed answers instead of guesswork.

Data, Tracking, and Technology Layers

Visibility has become a core requirement, not a nice-to-have. Shippers should focus on technology that provides real-time exception alerts, predictive ETAs, lane benchmarking, market insight reporting, and automated optimization tools.

,p>Strong visibility becomes even more important when capacity tightens, and routing guides start to slip.

Your 2026 Advantage: Building a Smarter, More Resilient Transportation Strategy

The transportation market is shifting, and those changes are becoming clearer as we head into 2026. Truckload capacity is tightening, intermodal is gaining, LTL pricing continues to rise, and regional imbalances are becoming more pronounced. Carrier exits are also reshaping where capacity shows up and how reliable routing guides are.

As the trucking industry faces tighter capacity, carrier consolidation, and uneven regional performance, shippers must adopt a more flexible, data-backed transportation strategy. The advantage will go to freight companies that blend modes more effectively, refresh routing guides often, regionalize freight where it makes sense, and use technology and engineering insights to stay ahead of disruptions rather than react to them.

The shippers who win in 2026 will be the ones who stay informed, adjust quickly, and make decisions based on real market intelligence rather than assumptions. Ryder’s insights can help you do exactly that. You can stay up to date with the Ryder Monthly State of Transportation Report here.